External Factors
The world has been changing rapidly since 1903 when the Wright Brothers' experiments ushered in "Age of Flight." Moreover, the rate of change is increasing and recent events, notably those of September 11, 2001 and February 1, 2003 will probably result in changes heretofore unforeseen. One result of the 9-11 terrorist attack was to disrupt and damage the commercial side of the aeronautics sector. The true extent of the damage resulting from 9-11 will probably not be completely assessed for many years, but it is clear that the downturn in commercial aircraft manufacturing will exist until the airlines restructure. Recent increases in orders are a sign of recovery. The engineering portion of the commercial sector apparently has not decreased significantly. Boeing, the largest manufacturer of commercial airliners has put its engineers to work on the design of a new aircraft. Meanwhile, the threat of terrorism, the ominous presence of the "axis of evil," and the current occupation of "axis" member, Iraq, will probably result in stimulation of the manufacture of sophisticated weapons systems. Based on our experience with "Desert Storm" in 1991, in the near-term, the manpower cost of the Iraqi War and the cost of procuring weapons on the military side of aeronautics sector can be expected to cause a reduction in Department of Defense funding available for basic and applied research. This reduction in research funds may have a negative impact on this department's current research programs. However, our recent successes in the area of missile design and specific plans in place to obtain long-term research funding by using the strength of Alabama's Congressional Delegation are very encouraging.
On February 1, 2003, the astronautics sector of "aerospace" was surprised, saddened, and challenged by the Columbia tragedy. It appears that there are two directions in which the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) can move. The first is downward, if NASA reduces activity in manned spaceflight. The second is upward, after NASA finds and solves the problem that destroyed the Columbia. The latter direction seems to be the one NASA has chosen. The root cause of the Columbia accident has been determined and measures are being taken to prevent future damage to orbiters due to debris from the other components of the Space Transportation System (STS). Also, a thorough review of STS operations has identified other potential problems that will be addressed. Although there is a carefully maintained distinction between the non-military use and exploration of space and military use of space, given that superiority of the United States in space is a requirement for our military superiority and security at home and aboard, this is not an unexpected decision. NASA plans are to develop a small, reusable, man-rated spacecraft for transporting personnel to and from the Space Station, a next generation shuttle, and next generation launch vehicles. This will result in the need for aerospace engineers in NASA and, especially in the industry that supports the civil space program. Additionally, the continuing need for civil service engineers in the military space segment indicates there will be a continued demand for aerospace engineers during the next few years in the space sector.
The average age of aerospace engineers in the civil service and private sectors is over 45. Approximately 27 percent could retire by 2008. The apparent decision of the commercial aircraft sector to retain engineers and the needs of NASA and the military, coupled with the demographics of the American engineering population indicate that the need for new aerospace engineers, primarily to replace those retiring, will remain strong for the next five years.
Tomorrow's aerospace engineers will be required to understand the engineering principles and developments embodied in engineering software tools developed through the expenditure of hundreds of man years of effort, and to apply such tools with skill and common sense. The challenges that aerospace engineering faculty members will face in the 21 st century are to select the most appropriate material to use in instruction and to use the most effective teaching techniques to produce graduates who are literate, inquisitive, ethical, productive contributors in a maturing and expanding field. The faculty of the Department of Aerospace Engineering of Auburn University must meet these challenges in accomplishing the stated departmental mission.
